Search results for "Arma process"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models
2012
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increments process for the low-frequency dynamics, and model the large uctuations by a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process. The model allows for analytic futures prices, and we apply these to model and estimate the whole market consistently. Besides standard parameter estimation, an estimation procedure is suggested, where we t the non-stationary trend using futures data with long time until delivery, and a robust L 1 -lter to nd the states of …
Were the chaotic ELMs in TCV the result of an ARMA process?
2004
The results of a previous paper claiming the demonstration that edge localized mode (ELM) dynamics on TCV are chaotic in a number of cases has recently been called into question, because the statistical test employed was found to also identify linear auto regressive—moving average (ARMA) models as chaotic. The TCV ELM data has therefore been re-examined with an improved method that is able to make this distinction, and the ARMA model is found to be an inappropriate description of the dynamics on TCV. The hypothesis that ELM dynamics are chaotic on TCV in a number of cases is therefore still favoured.
THE CARMA INTEREST RATE MODEL
2014
In this paper, we present a multi-factor continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for the short and forward interest rates. This model is able to present an adequate statistical description of the short and forward rate dynamics. We show that this is a tractable term structure model and provides closed-form solutions to bond prices, yields, bond option prices, and the term structure of forward rate volatility. We demonstrate the capabilities of our model by calibrating it to a panel of spot rates and the empirical volatility of forward rates simultaneously, making the model consistent with both the spot rate dynamics and forward rate volatility structure.